Market
46%
EVENT DERIVATIVES · KALSHI · POLYMARKET
The market has a price.
Oracle has a probability.
Project Oracle is an AI-powered prediction engine that analyzes event derivatives and identifies contracts whose market prices differ from statistically-derived probabilities. The objective is not to predict the future — it is to know when the market is wrong.
"Does our probability differ from the market enough to create positive expected value?"
— the question Oracle asks, continuously
How Oracle works
Prediction markets are efficient — but not perfectly efficient. Oracle runs a disciplined pipeline that turns raw market data into calibrated probability and expected value.
MARKET LOADER
Pulls every active contract from Kalshi
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DOMAIN MODELS
Tennis · Weather · Economics · more
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PROBABILITY AI
Ensemble of independent statistical models
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EDGE ANALYZER
Compares Oracle probability to market price
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TERMINAL
Dashboard, alerts, and audit trail
What an edge looks like
When Oracle's probability diverges from the market's implied probability, that divergence is the product — quantified, explained, and auditable.
Oracle
58%
Edge
+12%
Roadmap
Seven phases, from data warehouse to probabilistic intelligence.
LIVE
PHASE 1
Market Scanner
Connect to Kalshi. Pull all active contracts. Store them. Display them. The data warehouse.
PHASE 2
Prediction Engine
One category first — ATP tennis. Rankings, Elo, surface, form, head-to-head, fatigue.
PHASE 3
AI Research Agent
LLMs read news, injuries, travel, interviews — and emit structured features. Never predictions.
PHASE 4
Probability Engine
Independent models — gradient boosting, Bayesian, Monte Carlo — combined by an ensemble.
PHASE 5
Trading Intelligence
Not "bet on Djokovic" — the why: expected value, confidence, and enumerated reasons.
PHASE 6
Portfolio Manager
Kelly criterion, position sizing, correlation detection, exposure and loss limits.
PHASE 7
Autonomous Trading
Optional. Rule-bound. Every decision logged, every prediction replayable.
Coverage
Starting with sports and expanding across every event market Oracle can model.
TennisNFLNBA
MLBWeatherEconomics
ElectionsEntertainmentCrypto
Custom Event Models